Research

Journal Articles

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Policy Reports

Book Reviews

Work in Progress (Selection)

Titles and descriptions of works in progress have been modified to protect the integrity of double-blind peer review. Please get in touch if you would like to know more or read a draft.

• Elections and Political Efficacy in Disaffected Democracies (under review)
  Can an electoral victory still change what citizens believe about politics where disaffection is structurally entrenched? Using a direct-democracy vote as the electoral event, the paper combines two independent panel surveys: a two-wave panel fielded immediately before and after the vote, and a long-running national panel to capture longer-term effects. First-differences models with inverse probability of treatment weighting show that the attitudinal channel through which winning operates is internal political efficacy rather than satisfaction with democracy.
• Electoral Reform as a Matter of Degree
  Most quasi-experimental work treats electoral reform as a binary switch. This paper treats it as a continuous treatment: it leverages a reform that changed district magnitude by different amounts across localities, producing a dose-response design in which treatment intensity was administratively assigned. The effect of institutional change on voter turnout is estimated with ANCOVA specifications conditioning on pre-reform participation, supported by parallel-trends and balance checks.
• The Far Right's Electoral Ceiling in Latin America (with Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser and Javier Sajuria)
  If majorities actively reject far-right leaders, who exactly makes up that opposition? Drawing on original face-to-face probability surveys in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile (around 2,000 respondents per country), the paper uses Latent Class Analysis to identify the subgroups that compose the far-right opposition in each country and to assess how cohesive, or how fragile, that electoral ceiling really is.
• How Far-Right Parties Mobilize Voters in Latin America (with Federica Sánchez-Staniak and Talita Tanscheit)
  Applies the party-voter linkage framework to the six parties that the regional literature has identified as far right. Using expert-survey data from the Democratic Accountability and Linkages Project (DALP2) and a cluster analysis of 120 parties across 18 countries, complemented by party-level organizational indicators, we show that these parties are ideologically homogeneous but strikingly heterogeneous in how they build and sustain electoral support.
• Rethinking the Political Outsider
  A conceptual framework, at this stage, that disentangles three phenomena the literature tends to bundle together: anti-establishment politics, outsider status, and populism. The core distinction separates a candidate's structural position in the party system from their discursive self-presentation, which opens the question of which of the two voters actually respond to.
• The New Left's Electorate in Chile
  The other side of the realignment coin: who votes for the new left, and how do they differ from the rest of the electorate? Using longitudinal panel data, the paper traces whom these voters supported before the new left existed (if they voted at all) and how their public opinion trajectories have evolved relative to other voters.